BEBO a bad bet...really? lol

OK, OK I know that you all know I used to work at AOL, and was part of the "old guard" there...but I cannot help but laugh my ass off when I read that AOL is now looking to offload Bebo, the third rate social network they bought for $850MM.

As many of you know I currently run a special purpose acquisition corporation or SPAC, which is basically a fund designed to buy a company, (in our case in the entertainment, digital or media space), and my partner Ted Green and I have spent the past year looking at all sorts of companies, (probably over 100).  One of the companies offered up was BEBO, at the time for $350MM and it took us about 30 seconds to shut the deal down. Why...? How could the all seeing, all knowing Malcolm turn something down so fast???

Well it was quite easy.  Anyone who has worked in the youth section would know Bebo mainly has kids on their site, and unless it were part of a larger infrastructure it wasn't really worth much compared to MySpace and Facebook.  I certainly wasn't worth $350MM, and I would doubt anything much over $100MM as a real business.  When AOL paid $850 MM Ron Grant, Randy Falco and Jeff Bewkes maintained that with integration into AOL Bebo would rock all our worlds, and they bet their reputations on this.  It was a bold move to say the least, an acquisition that the whole industry took notice off, (especially with that price tag, a price that everyone thought was insane), and you would think, as your major, "coming out party" acquisition you would have a concrete plan behind it.  Now it seems they didn't at all, in fact, it seems that according to All things D today they were totally unaware of who Bebo's audience were.  Dare I say, with the audience we had built on KOL(between 1.5 and 3.5MM uniques), (AOL's kids service), Bebo,(mainly a kid audience), would have trouble making a satisfactory partnership, but at least it would have been in the same demo.

So what happens now...AOL has a turkey on it's hands and Falco, Grant and Bewkes cannot afford to loose face...BTW TWX is trading at $9.76 (1pm).

An Apple Car

So how much is a brand worth?  Arguably when I joined AOL in 2002, their brand was in a terrible place, especially in the youth sector that I was concentrating on, (I would believe it's in a much worse state now...AOL seems to have lost it's relevance), but a damaged brand.  It seems Apple's brand just keeps getting bigger and better. In a new Bain study, 21% of Europeans would buy an Apple CAR!  Yes a Car! Even though they have never mentioned, designed, been quoted or possibly even thought of going into the automotive sector, (who would), their brand is so strong, it supports totally new categories.  Here's the report from Silicon Alley's "Alley Insider":

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/one-in-five-europeans-would-buy-an-apple-car-aapl

Thoughts? Would you buy an apple car?

Netflix winning

As we all feel the pinch from the bad economy, where are you willing to put your money.  It seems that Netflix is one place...with a 45% growth in the last quarter, and reporting $22 million in profit this quarter, the online entertainment business is sitting pretty.  It makes sense...a trip to the cinema for two, with ticket prices at $10, drinks, popcorn...you're easily looking at $40, and a night in at home in front of the TV watching a Netflix movie is cents, (monthly subscription fee).  The most interesting news is that Netflix's streaming service is really taking off.  This is backed up with a report that came out yesterday from Solutions Research Group, stating that 70% of 18-34 year olds are watching content online...all forms but mostly professional and longform.  WIll everything go online?  Years and years ago, when I was a a young media pup, the internet was just starting and the big prediction was a one screen universe. Everything on one screen, internet, TV, mail, everything on your TV.  This is now turning into the everything on every screen. you can watch your movies on TV, online, in theaters, and on your phone.  This is where it is going...embrace or die businesses.  To be honest, when I see Reed business publications laying people off, it would seem to make sense to get rid of the print business and put it all online.

Can Jaguar change a car tyre???

FINAL UPDATE: Told Jag I was stopping payment on the car.

UPDATE: OK day four of Jagate...they actually might not have gotten the wheel off the car...Jaguar has no idea what's going on and it's impossible to get in contact with them.  They returned a call from Tuesday today and had no answers...it's just becoming a fiasco. All this, to change a car tire.

UPDATE: They have the wheel off!!!!! Now $500 for a new tire...shoot me.

UPDATE: Day three of Jagate...still no car, not sure if they have even got my car tire off!

UPDATE on the UPDATE: So finally my car makes it to Manhattan Jaguar, and they do not know if they can get the wheel off, depending on whether they have the right lock lug or not...2 days so far and still unable to change a car tire! Driving me crazy!

UPDATE: Apparently in an hour, they're picking my car up to take it into a garage...still beyond them to change a car tire, they actually have to pick the whole car up? Buy TATA stock now lol.

How was your Sunday afternoon?  So, OK you can file this post under the griping bitching section, but I spent my sunday afternoon trying to change a car tire.  My car, (as you will have obviously realized), has a flat. The Jag comes with fancy wheel locks on it. When i went to change the tire, the fancy wheel lock jack was missing. SO, I call the special roadside assistance number they give you. I am told their roadside assistance people will be there in 45 minutes. Not bad for a Sunday. 2 hours later, they turn up, and it's not even  mechanic, it's some kid, from a company called "Pop A Lock". He has a jack but not a wheel lock jack, and so after now three hours, he leaves unable to change a simple tyre.

WTF!

You would expect, that a simple thing as changing a tire would not stump a company such as Jaguar! You would expect that the roadside assistance that you pay for would actually be a mechanic. You would expect that with their fancy automated call back system, if they say it's going to be 45 minutes, it would be at most an hour!

Anyone want to buy a Jag?

Microsoft lay offs

OK so it's sad and bad whenever anyone has to lay people off...and amazingly Microsoft has never had to do this before...and to be sure 5,000 is a real dent in the workforce, BUT; over the year, especially the years of excess in Microsoft, being top dog, a virtual monopoly...how much padding has added to the workforce?  You have to think that there are literally thousands of people, in cushy, over paid jobs, possibly not working at the pace that other companies require, due to the fact that the Microsoft pig has been so fat for so many years.  I've seen it before in large companies.  At the BBC we called them "lifers"...people who treat their job as an entitlement and not as a challenge with targets and goals to achieve.  Also in large companies, management becomes weak, not wanting to force accountability and target goals.  Microsoft has to have many "lifers", so I am thinking this might not be such a bad thing for Microsoft, as long as they are getting rid of the right people.

Facebook - Can you live without it?

So as many of you know, I live on Facebook.  It is constantly an open page on my desktop.  I have come to rely on Facebook as a communications hub for all my friends.  Facebook doesn't make any money, it's loosing bucket loads of cash through a frightening monthly burn rate and is only projecting, ($300MM), in revenues this year.  Here is an open question to anyone who might read this...if it were a choice of Facebook going away, or paying $5 a month for it, would you pay the $5 a month...I would.

Facebook claims to have 160MM users worldwide.  If this is the case and 30% decide on the subscription model at $5 a month, thats, $2,880,000,000 in revenue. Facebook in fact only needs 3.5% of their current users to make the $300MM revenue, suddenly a 5% retention is looking better...or am I wrong...comments please?

SEC investigating Steve Jobs/APPLE

Apparently being ill, and not wanting to tell the whole world about your illness is a matter for the SEC?  We all know Steve Jobs is ill. How ill, is another question, BUT, even if you are an investor in Apple, it really is none of your business. What IS your business is, can Steve Jobs perform his job properly?  Has he misled anyone as to his abilities to do that?  That we will not know, however, as he has now stepped down for a six month period, I doubt he was intending to defraud his investors before by staying at his post.

The bigger question is...is Apple a one man company?  Everyone hails Steve for being a genius,(even me), and I am guilty of being the biggest macphile out there, (my first mackintosh computer was at "Coming Next" magazine in Newcastle back when I was 22 years old, I still have MAC's first ever laptop, and it works!), but is Apple dead if Steve is?  I really don't think so. As a leader, innovator and positioning executive Steve is amazing, but he doesn't design, develop and produce all these wonderful products himself...there are hundreds of amazingly talented MAC peeps out there creating the new products, (I think it's high time we had a iToilet, imagine the fun we could have in the morning).  

So let's let Steve make a recovery, Tim Cooke is as close as anyone to the company operations, (COO), so he'll be able to steer the ship, Apple retail is doing excellent, especially compared to everyone else in retail...my god, they didn't even have to drop their prices this Christmas...people were prepared, in the worst economy in the world, to pay more than any PC for an Apple!!

So Steve is ill, leave him alone, he hopefully makes a full recovery, and all will be well with the world.

Time Sq today

So was it right that the crowd in Time Sq today for the inauguration of President Obama booed outgoing President Bush when he was shown on the jumbotron?  I think it's interesting...this was not just high jinx, there was a genuine vitriolic flavor to the booing.  

It is true that this man has presided over one of the worst presidencies in history, he lost international support for America, fought a war that no one believed in...but should we have thrown respect out of the window and booed him?

I think it is a sign of true failure.  You can loose an argument and hold onto respect, you can approve something i disagree with a remain respected, but if you loose the people...you get booed on your way out.

Obama Day!

Today...is a very good day.

My first post...

Well here it is, at last I have set up my own Blog.  The reason? Well for a start, sometimes you just want to get something off your chest...the entertainment industry, economy, life, relationships and fun...all the things that impact my life.

So when something makes me want to rant and rave, it'll live here, and two people a dog can read it.