Is Network TV dead?

Network TV is in ICU and they're having to put all the fancy machines around the bed, including the one that goes "ping".

Remember when there was only network TV. CBS, NBC, ABC; they ruled the TV planet. It was, (and still is), the best form of advertising, they charged high CPM's against even higher audience figures. Then cable TV came in. OK, so Mr. Network man isn't too worried, a couple of kids channels, Sports channels well they'll never be able to afford the rights, Discovery... what's that? It must be a channel for people who go camping and wear burkinstocks! Ohhh yes they were still very bullish. Then digital cable came in and there were literally hundreds of channels, all putting programming out in niche areas, all diluting the overall viewer universe. Now of course we have the internet...game over for every network as we know it.

I applaud NBC and Fox or jumping into online TV video with HULU; and talk about a team of smart people getting it right out of the box, HULU really is great! But the internet, cheap cost of setting up a suite of digital channels, is eventually going to kill network TV.  So how will it work?

Well, I think the days of the $2MM per episode dramas are gone. I think the chances of getting high quality drama programming can only come when the unions understand that their future is linked to allowing networks more room, because budgets are only going one way and that's down. Network TV can make more money from reality TV, but the execs have to look at the quality  threshold as some reality TV is really bad digital cable standard. A show like survivor and amazing race is high quality entertainment, reality or not... a show like the Bachelor and Biggest Looser maybe isn't quite up to the standards but look at the ratings! Ben Silverman got it right when he said they're managing ROI not budgets, in other words screw a $2MM drama if I can make a reality show for $750K and get 75% of what the drama would make in advertising, but actually make a larger profit.

Then there is the after market...you can sell dramas all over the world, but reality shows are format sales with much less return.  If I had money now, I would be putting it on Internet video and not Network TV, which is exactly where the advertisers are going to go. So this is going to force the network CPM's down and then you're just a glorified digital channel with must carry status and a good position on the dial!