Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Sirius a bust?

So today, John Malone and Liberty stepped in to save Sirius from bankruptcy.  I am a big fan of satellite radio, mainly because I can have channels with music and no advertising. I first had XM in my car, which was good until one of my favorite channels, started running ads, and I got really pissed. In my car now I have Sirius and it's good. They have a DJ I used to listen to when I was living in LA called Richard Blade, who plays really good 80's music.  It's definitely worth the money, (I think $6 a month), but as a company it has some MAJOR obstacles to overcome.

1. Business model predicated by major new car installs. With the car market in complete shambles, numbers are going to slow right down.

2. Stupid deals like Howard Stern's $500MM deal. Works out with Sterns fees and production expenses to be $100MM a year. First of all, no one is worth that much, secondly, who, as a CEO writes a talent deal that takes $100MM off the top, for one piece of talent???

3. Lack of expansion... mobile versions of XM and Sirius don't really work because of the need for Satellite reception...(if you're sitting under a tree they don't work... walking around NY with those high buildings etc). People do not need satellite in their homes because we all have out favorite music on iPods... which I now run through my TV speakers... so no need for Sirius there. Unless you're a farmer, sitting in the middle of a field with no trees nearby... it's a tough one, (and Sirius doesn't have a sheep channel).

4. Debt; which is what the bail out is all about. But the company will still have the new debt to Liberty, at 15% interest!!!

I do still love satellite radio, but someone needs to go in an look at the overhead construction and basic business model.

Thoughts????

1 comment:

  1. I couldn't help but notice last week that XM/Siruis closed at $0.5/share and little old Carbon Sciences (CABN) in Santa Barbara closed at $0.18/share. Could it be that finding a way to produce renewable and sustainable liquid fuels that fin in the existing infrastructure is three times more important than satellite radio?

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